Reproducible Model Selection Using Bagged Posteriors.

Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are misspecified, two or more models can provide a nearly equally good fit to the data, in which case Bayesian model selection can be highly unstable, potentially leading to self-contradictory findings. To remedy this instability, we propose to use bagging on the posterior distribution ("BayesBag") - that is, to average the posterior model probabilities over many bootstrapped datasets. We provide theoretical results characterizing the asymptotic behavior of the posterior and the bagged posterior in the (misspecified) model selection setting. We empirically assess the BayesBag approach on synthetic and real-world data in (i) feature selection for linear regression and (ii) phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Our theory and experiments show that, when all models are misspecified, BayesBag (a) provides greater reproducibility and (b) places posterior mass on optimal models more reliably, compared to the usual Bayesian posterior; on the other hand, under correct specification, BayesBag is slightly more conservative than the usual posterior, in the sense that BayesBag posterior probabilities tend to be slightly farther from the extremes of zero and one. Overall, our results demonstrate that BayesBag provides an easy-to-use and widely applicable approach that improves upon Bayesian model selection by making it more stable and reproducible.

The Mutational Signature Comprehensive Analysis Toolkit (musicatk) for the Discovery, Prediction, and Exploration of Mutational Signatures.

Mutational signatures are patterns of somatic alterations in the genome caused by carcinogenic exposures or aberrant cellular processes. To provide a comprehensive workflow for preprocessing, analysis, and visualization of mutational signatures, we created the Mutational Signature Comprehensive Analysis Toolkit (musicatk) package. musicatk enables users to select different schemas for counting mutation types and to easily combine count tables from different schemas. Multiple distinct methods are available to deconvolute signatures and exposures or to predict exposures in individual samples given a pre-existing set of signatures. Additional exploratory features include the ability to compare signatures to the Catalogue Of Somatic Mutations In Cancer (COSMIC) database, embed tumors in two dimensions with uniform manifold approximation and projection, cluster tumors into subgroups based on exposure frequencies, identify differentially active exposures between tumor subgroups, and plot exposure distributions across user-defined annotations such as tumor type. Overall, musicatk will enable users to gain novel insights into the patterns of mutational signatures observed in cancer cohorts. SIGNIFICANCE: The musicatk package empowers researchers to characterize mutational signatures and tumor heterogeneity with a comprehensive set of preprocessing utilities, discovery and prediction tools, and multiple functions for downstream analysis and visualization.

Bidirectional contact tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control.

Contact tracing is critical to controlling COVID-19, but most protocols only "forward-trace" to notify people who were recently exposed. Using a stochastic branching-process model, we find that "bidirectional" tracing to identify infector individuals and their other infectees robustly improves outbreak control. In our model, bidirectional tracing more than doubles the reduction in effective reproduction number (Reff) achieved by forward-tracing alone, while dramatically increasing resilience to low case ascertainment and test sensitivity. The greatest gains are realised by expanding the manual tracing window from 2 to 6 days pre-symptom-onset or, alternatively, by implementing high-uptake smartphone-based exposure notification; however, to achieve the performance of the former approach, the latter requires nearly all smartphones to detect exposure events. With or without exposure notification, our results suggest that implementing bidirectional tracing could dramatically improve COVID-19 control.